We measure horizons by reach, not time. AI moves too fast for time windows to hold. Reach (how far the bet sits from your current operating model) stays anchored. Each horizon gets its own protected budget, its own measurement standard, and its own named failure mode. Not time. Reach.
H1 · ~70% of budget · Core reach
Defend the core
Workflows your business already runs. Document processing, lead routing, internal copilots. Efficiency plays on existing operations.
Failure mode: pilot purgatory. H1 wins that never reach production because they're owned by an innovation team instead of an ops team.
H2 · ~20% of budget · Adjacent reach
Adjacent capabilities
One step out from the core. New agents on existing problems. New capabilities on the same operating model. Custom multi-agent workflows, AI-native features, vertical-specific models.
Failure mode: stalled handoff. H2 builds that work in a demo and never integrate with the core business.
H3 · ~10% of budget · Transform reach
Transformation bets
A new operating model. A new business model. A new product line. Org redesign, replacing entire workflows with orchestrated agents, AI-first product categories.
Failure mode: frozen transformation. H3 bets that get talked about for two years and never get funded because no one wants to defend them.