Measured by reach, not time. AI moves too fast for time windows to hold. Reach (how far the bet sits from your current operating model) stays anchored. Each horizon gets its own protected budget, measurement standard, and named failure mode.
H1 · ~70% of budget · Core reach
Defend the core
Workflows your business already runs. Document processing, lead routing, internal copilots. Efficiency plays on existing operations.
Failure mode: pilot purgatory. Wins that never reach production because innovation owns them, not ops.
H2 · ~20% of budget · Adjacent reach
Adjacent capabilities
One step out. New agents on existing problems, new capabilities on the same operating model. Custom multi-agent workflows, AI-native features, vertical-specific models.
Failure mode: stalled handoff. Builds that work in a demo and never integrate with the core business.
H3 · ~10% of budget · Transform reach
Transformation bets
New operating model. New business model. New product line. Org redesign, orchestrated agents replacing workflows, AI-first product categories.
Failure mode: frozen transformation. Bets talked about for two years and never funded because no one will defend them.